According to a Cointelegraph review of data from two popular prediction markets, traders on Polymarket and Kalshi are wagering that 2025 will be a remarkable year for cryptocurrency markets. These prediction markets have gained significant attention in recent times, with their accuracy surpassing traditional polling methods.
Record Highs Expected for Bitcoin and Ether
Traders on Polymarket and Kalshi expect Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) to hit record highs in 2025. The current record high for BTC is around $108,300, while ETH’s record high is approximately $4,720.
Kalshi Prices Odds of Record Highs
As of December 26, Kalshi prices more than 60% odds of BTC and ETH reaching at least $125,000 and $5,000 in 2025, respectively. This indicates that a significant portion of traders believe these cryptocurrencies will experience substantial price growth in the coming year.
Polymarket Sets Odds for Record Highs
In contrast, Polymarket sets 50% odds of BTC touching $120,000 before the end of March. This suggests that while there is still uncertainty regarding the exact timing and magnitude of the price increase, a majority of traders believe that BTC will reach or surpass this target.
Expectations for Crypto ETFs and Strategic Reserves
Bettors on Polymarket also expect US regulators to greenlight several new types of crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in 2025. Specifically, they anticipate the approval of XRP, Solana, Litecoin, and Dogecoin ETFs by July 31.
Polymarket prices these events as follows:
- XRP ETF: 75% odds
- Solana ETF: 69% odds
- Litecoin ETF: 51% odds
- Dogecoin ETF: 22% odds
Additionally, Kalshi users see a 59% chance that US President-elect Donald Trump will create a national strategic Bitcoin reserve during his presidency. Polymarket assigns only 29% odds of Trump doing so in his first 100 days in office.
Rise of Prediction Markets
Prediction markets have gained significant attention in recent times, with upward of $4 billion in trading volume tied to the US presidential race alone. These platforms work by allowing users to trade contracts tied to specific events, with prices fluctuating dynamically based on expected outcomes.
Compared to traditional polling methods, prediction markets proved to be more accurate in forecasting the outcome of the 2020 US presidential election. They not only predicted Trump’s win but also his party’s sweep of the US House and Senate.
Conflicting Signals
While prediction markets are optimistic about cryptocurrency prices in 2025, conventional futures markets anticipate more modest gains for cryptocurrencies in the first quarter of 2025.
Traders on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) are pricing in March spot prices of roughly $98,000 for BTC and $3,500 for ETH. These prices represent a significant increase from the current spot prices of around $96,000 and $3,350, respectively.
The Role of Futures Contracts
Futures contracts are standardized agreements to buy or sell an underlying asset at a future date. They play a critical role in hedging strategies and are also popular for speculation.
In conclusion, bettors on prediction markets expect 2025 to be a remarkable year for cryptocurrency markets. With record highs expected for Bitcoin and Ether, the approval of new crypto ETFs, and the potential establishment of a national strategic Bitcoin reserve, these predictions suggest a bright future for cryptocurrencies. However, conflicting signals from conventional futures markets indicate that the road ahead will be uncertain.
References
- Cointelegraph: "Bettors Expect 2025 to Be a Banner Year for Cryptocurrency Markets"
- Polymarket: "BTC and ETH Price Targets in 2025"
- Kalshi: "US President-Elect Donald Trump’s Chances of Creating a National Strategic Bitcoin Reserve"
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